Cyclones in Mexico: Four major hurricanes could form in the Atlantic, according to forecast

The hurricane season in Mexico has two approximate start dates as our country is surrounded by two oceans, so that on the Pacific coast it usually starts in mid-May, while in the Atlantic coast (Gulf of Mexico) it occurs in early June, however, changes in patterns due to the climate change mean that predictions are not so accurate.

In the case of the Gulf of Mexico for our country, this year there will be activity above the annual average and is expected to record four major hurricanes, according to the forecast of Colorado State University (CSU), in the United States, which is being hit by these weather events on its east coast.

According to the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the CSU, 19 named tropical storms will be generated in the Atlantic, that is, with maximum sustained winds of 63 kilometers per hour or more, a figure above the average of 14 storms per year.

It highlights that in 2022 four major hurricanes will form, with winds of 178 km/h, which will also be above the average of three major cyclones. According to CSU prediction models, in the season from June to the end of November, a total of about nine hurricanes could be expected, more than the seven historically recorded in this basin.

The list of tropical storms with names on the Atlantic coast for 2022 is as follows: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter. Four major cyclones could emerge from this list.

For specialist Philip J. Klotzbach, the temperature of the subtropical Atlantic is “warmer than normal”, and for that reason there is an above-average probability that major hurricanes will impact continental coasts and the Caribbean.

CSU takes as reference the averages analyzed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, which are based on records from 1991 to 2020 in the Atlantic Ocean.

The report forecasts a total of 90 days of storms, above the average of 80 days, as well as 35 days of hurricanes, as in 2020 and 2021, but above the average of 27 days.

According to forecasts, there is a 46% chance that a hurricane will hit the Gulf of Mexico.

The expert clarified that “it is impossible to predict a complete hurricane season as early as April,” and that is why they will continue to update their report.

If this first forecast is met, 2022 will be the seventh consecutive season of above-average Atlantic hurricanes.

Last year's season culminated in 21 named storms, of which seven became hurricanes and of these four became major hurricanes.

Just two weeks ago, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña warning for the northern hemisphere of the planet.

The La Niña phenomenon occurs in the Pacific Ocean, where temperatures on the Equator line drop, thereby limiting the formation of hurricanes. However, this weather event has a reverse effect in the Atlantic, where temperatures increase and encourage the development of tropical cyclones.

KEEP READING: