Is Russia heading towards a war of attrition with Ukraine?

Having failed to make quick gains at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army continues to seek decisive military victories a month later, but seems to be heading towards a war of devastating attrition for the civilian population.

According to the United States, Russia has expanded its air and naval operations in the country in recent days in the face of resistance from Ukrainian forces, which continue to slow down the enemy advance.

“What we see is a desperate Russian attempt to regain momentum,” said a senior Pentagon official this week, at a time when Russian forces were still blocked 15 km northwest and 30 km east of the capital, targeted by regular bombardments.

The seizure of Kiev seemed to be the main objective of the Russians when they crossed the border on 24 February with a view to bringing down the regime of President Volodymir Zelensky.

But, according to the unanimous opinion of Western experts, the 150,000 to 200,000 men mobilized by Vladimir Putin failed to enter the war by supposing weak resistance from their adversaries, a failure of Russian intelligence, because they neglected their logistical needs.

Very important tactical loophole, the Russian military failed to establish their air superiority in the Ukrainian sky.

In addition, “there is a lack among the Russians of a real policy of command and conduct,” underlines a French military exalt, noting a lack of coordination between air and ground forces, and inaccurate Russian bombing.

- The air weapon -

Although the number of soldiers killed is impossible to verify, the estimates are impressive: the Russians would have lost more than 7,000 soldiers in a month, according to intelligence sources quoted by the New York Times.

That is a figure higher than the combined US losses in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ukraine, for its part, claimed on 12 March that it lost 1,300 military personnel, a figure undoubtedly lower than the reality.

In the absence of significant progress, the Russian offensive seems to focus on terrorizing and demoralizing Ukrainians, 10 million of whom fled their homes.

“The more Russian infantry stagnates, the army increases the brutality of its actions and the disproportionate use of air weapons,” a European source close to NATO tells AFP. “Putin needs an agreement, and therefore he requires victories,” he added.

In the absence of taking control of the cities, the Russians are constantly bombing them in the northeast, as in Kharkiv, the country's second largest city, and at the same time exerting constant pressure on cities in the east and south.

Mikolaiv (southwest), the last strategic point before the port of Odessa, continues to be attacked.

- Increasing destruction -

In Mariupol (south), a large port city besieged and bombed for weeks, some 100,000 inhabitants are still locked in ruins with corpses and lack everything they need.

A fierce revealing of the strategic weight of the city for the Russians. Seizing Mariupol enables them to establish a land bridge between their forces in Crimea in the southwest and the pro-Russian separatist territories of the Donbas in the east. In this region, the Russians hope to encircle Ukrainian forces and cut them off from the rest of the country.

“The next episode of that conflict may be even more unpleasant because it could turn into a war of attrition, with increasing bombardments on civilian areas. The Russian forces will probably try to compensate for their low results with further destruction,” says Michael Kofman, from the American think tank ANC.

In the absence of a negotiated solution, “war of attrition is the most feasible possibility, with siege tactics and reinforced bombing, as in Aleppo or Grozny,” says William Alberque, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Alberque warns of the temptation to force Ukraine to accept a ceasefire under pressure from Western public opinion, horrified by images of destruction and the situation of the trapped civilian population.

“Our desire to end the suffering of Ukrainians could help the Russians. They will use a ceasefire to rebuild their forces,” he tells AFP, fearing that the conflict will take place for a long time.

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