Without an economic plan, there is no reason why inflation should not accelerate.

。 4.7％。

In 2020, the BCRA provided 7.3% of GDP to the government. At that time, several economists warned that it was dangerous to issue a huge currency in the short term and that prices would rise sooner or later. However, between the collapse of economic activity and the growing demand for preventive funds, the impact was reduced in the short term and the inflation rate was only 36.1%.

In 2021, things were different. The government continued to raise funds from the Treasury through issuance, which in this case amounted to 4.6% of GDP, and the recovery of economic activity and the decrease in demand for funds played an important role. Inflation was closed by more than 50%. The problem is not only in numbers, but also because of the economic populism that the government adopted last year to increase the score at times in legislative elections, the relative price adjustment has been postponed until this year. That is, by 2022, it will not only adjust inflation for gasoline, tariffs, advanced, telecommunications, etc. this year, but also do what the government did not want last year.

That is why the monthly inflation rate is 4.7%, and it seems to be lower compared to March due to the increase in the number of schools and the regulated price adjustment (as mentioned in the previous paragraph), so this year's forecast is that inflation is close to 60% instead of 50%.

In order to implement a serious anti-inflation plan, it is necessary to reduce the dependence of the Ministry of Finance on BCRA. Without this independence, any plan would be less reliable. This is what the previous government had to learn when Frederick Stursinger's BCRA strengthened monetary policy by raising interest rates. On the other hand, the fiscal deficit not only did not decrease, but it also added a mistake, which was evident among economists at the time.

Now, how can this government close a fiscal loophole of about 3.5% of GDP? Of course, the measures to be taken were not welcome. More than one member of the government, especially those involved with the Vice President, knew this, and the vote on the parliamentary agreement began to reflect laughter.

Despite what Martín Guzman said in the IMF agreement, Argentina will not return to the path of sustained economic growth. The reason is simple. Nowadays, the rules of the game stipulate that there are no rules. One day there was a 31% withholding tax, and the next day the withholding tax was raised by 2 percentage points due to the suspension of export registrations. One day, the government imposed a price control on the products it sells and announced that all the products it sells were lost. As a result, there are no countries that can create jobs, regardless of whether they have achieved the goals of the fund. In this regard, reaching an agreement with the IMF was a necessary but not sufficient condition for Argentina to solve the problem.

Without structural reforms, the rules of the game will not change, and Argentina will continue on the path of a permanent economic crisis. The war verdict mentioned by the president is more of a smell than a serious plan to tighten price control and new regulations. Again, today's bread, tomorrow is hungry.