AP EXPLAINS: Can China give military aid to Russia?

BEIJING (AP) — The United States says that Russia has asked China for military aid for its war in Ukraine and that China has responded in the affirmative. Moscow and Beijing have denied this, and a Chinese spokesman called the complaint “misinformation.”

However, the allegations have generated conjecture as to how far Beijing would be willing to go in supporting its “most important strategic partner”, in recent words of the Chinese foreign minister.

WHAT DID THE UNITED STATES SAY?

After initial reports that Russia asked China for military aid, anonymous US officials said that Washington had determined that China had sent a signal to Russia: Beijing would be willing to provide military support for the campaign in Ukraine and financial aid to help mitigate the impact of sanctions imposed by The West.

At a meeting in Rome on Monday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned Chinese senior foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi that China should not provide such support, while the Kremlin denied asking for supplies.

The United States is wary of Chinese intentions because President Xi Jinping's government has refused to criticize the Russian invasion, although it seeks to distance itself from the war by calling for dialogue and by reiterating its position that the territory of a nation should be respected.

WHAT COULD CHINA OFFER?

It is more likely to offer bullets and ready meals than fighterbombers and tanks, experts say.

China “probably wants to avoid high-impact arms sales to Russia amid a conflict that would expose Beijing to international sanctions,” said Drew Thompson, a former US Department of Defense official and now a professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.

Beijing would be more willing to send parts, food, ammunition and dual-use items that do not contravene sanctions and would not deserve international reprisals, Thompson said.

For example, Russian helicopters are probably exhausting their flares to counter Stinger short-range portable missiles. China could sell flares to Russia, if they are compatible with Russian launchers, Thompson said. China could also help with surveillance and intelligence, he added.

Given Washington's warnings, Chinese aid would probably consist of “very basic things,” such as rations for soldiers, said San Rogeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute in Australia.

He added that it would be almost impossible for Russia to integrate Chinese weapons into its armed forces in such a short period of time.

WOULD CHINA DO IT?

Although it is not impossible, both Chinese and foreign experts say that there are several factors that advise against it. For starters, it would create a bad image.

“China will be very careful to do everything possible to prevent its aid from being used on the battlefields of Ukraine,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

He added that China “has no reason to help Russia's operation in Ukraine.”

Roggeveen agrees: aid to Moscow has no “obvious advantages” for China. He noted that the weakening of Russia would give China strategic and economic advantages.

Throughout the crisis, Chinese officials have said that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries must be respected. His detractors say that the refusal to criticize the Russian invasion contradicts that position.

“Russia's military operation in Ukraine has by its nature become an invasion, and China will never help one country with weapons attack another sovereign country, and that is not in accordance with international law,” said Li Xin, director of the Institute of European and Asian Studies at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.

China does not want the conflict to escalate or be carried away as co-belligerent, so any Chinese support “would be carefully measured and calibrated,” Thompson said.